The World Order Is Fraying. Will The Global Economy Survive?

TLDR The conversation covers global economy, Federal Reserve decisions, potential consequences of policies, reshaping industries, geopolitical tensions, and market indicators, with emphasis on long-term strategies, potential risks, and investment themes.

Key Insights

Strategic Policy Shift for Weak Supply-Side Issues

The conversation emphasizes the necessity for a strategic shift in policy to address weak supply-side issues in the US economy. The speaker argues that further stimulus lacks the capacity to bolster the economy and highlights the potential risks of falling into the trap of creating higher inflation. The discussion also touches on the challenges of executing a strategic shift in policy and the potential impact on subsidies and tariffs.

Incentivizing Private Sector Involvement for Economic Reshaping

The conversation delves into reshaping policies for American manufacturing and shipping industries, focusing on the use of subsidies and tariffs to incentivize private sector involvement and reclaim commercial control. It also emphasizes the potential impact on reshaping the economy, creating real jobs, and addressing the division between Main Street and Wall Street. Additionally, the discussion highlights the need for a long-term strategy spanning over a couple of decades for rebuilding and repositioning the economy.

Disentangling Supply Chains and Rebalancing Power

The conversation centers around the long-term impact of disentangling supply chains from China and the necessity of a multi-decade time commitment. It emphasizes the need for a combination of approaches like looser fiscal policy, protectionism, and investment in real value-driven industries to rebalance power between labor and capital. While acknowledging concerns about heavy-handed state intervention, the conversation provides a positive outlook on the potential for a more resilient and fairer economic system.

Evaluating Nationalist and Globalist Tensions in Politics

The discussion covers the emergence of nationalist and globalist tensions in domestic and international politics, particularly the shift towards nationalism in Western democracies. It highlights concerns about the mismanagement of nationalist policies and the potential consequences of past failed policies. The conversation also delves into economic models and geopolitical landscapes, offering insights into potential governance strategies and geopolitical considerations.

Assessing Market Indicators and Hedging Strategies

The conversation focuses on market indicators, hedging strategies for S&P, and adjustments in bond positions and stock exposure. It discusses using options as a protective instrument and shares insights into managing crash risk in a low volatility environment. Additionally, the speakers touch on planning content chaos and an upcoming live Q&A session with an expert on Federal Reserve.

Engaging with New Harbor Financial's Market Perspectives

The conversation offers insights into market reactions, predictions, and the potential impact of financial conditions on future rate changes. It discusses conflicting approaches of the Federal Reserve and market expectations, highlighting the multifactorial nature of market cycles and the potential risks associated with low volatility levels. Additionally, recent changes in New Harbor's core portfolio are mentioned in response to the current market conditions.

Substack Subscription Update and Live Discussion Opportunity

Adam Tager announces live discussion opportunities with experts, followed by video releases to subscribers. He mentions a subscription price increase and advises viewers to subscribe before the price change for the lower rate. Lastly, Adam promotes his Fed reaction video and encourages free subscription for future updates and events.

Questions & Answers

What are the potential consequences of the FED pivoting too early?

The potential consequences of the FED pivoting too early include creating higher inflation and falling into the trap of a painful recession.

What topics were covered regarding reshaping policies for American manufacturing and shipping industries?

The conversation covered topics related to reshaping policies for American manufacturing and shipping industries, including the use of subsidies and tariffs, and the potential impact on reshaping the economy.

What was highlighted about the long-term impact of disentangling supply chains from China?

The conversation emphasized the long-term impact of disentangling supply chains from China and the need for a multi-decade time commitment, as well as the need for a combination of approaches to turn the economic ship around.

What geopolitical and economic tensions were discussed?

The conversation covered various topics related to geopolitical and economic tensions, including concerns about the West's approach, the dynamics of rising and declining powers, and potential investment themes in the face of disruptive change.

What market indicators and hedging strategies were discussed?

The conversation mainly focused on market indicators and hedging strategies for S&P, short-term IND indicators, the adjustment of hedges, and concerns about crash risk.

What announcements were made regarding subscription and upcoming events?

Adam announced a price increase for premium subscription, a live discussion with Axel, and encouraged viewers to subscribe for free and stay updated on future events.

Summary of Timestamps

The conversation between Adam Tager and Michael Ever covers the shifting global economy and financial markets, with a focus on the potential impact of Federal Reserve decisions.

The conversation revolves around the potential consequences of the FED pivoting too early and falling into the trap of creating higher inflation.

The conversation covered various topics related to reshaping policies for American manufacturing and shipping industries.

The conversation revolves around the long-term impact of disentangling supply chains from China and nearshoring or onshoring them, requiring a multi-decade time commitment.

The conversation covers a shift from a Marxist view to a Leninist view, societal polarization and dispersion, geopolitical tensions with Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, the need for strong leadership for disruptive changes.